The most intriguing topic in the 2023-2024 Premier League is whether Manchester City will be deposed.
At 02:00 on August 12, the Premier League 2023-2024 officially started. Defending champions Manchester City come to visit Burnley.
Most believe that, even though Burnley is the reigning Championship champion, Man City will still return with 3 points, giving themselves a good momentum before other big names come out on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
Although it is only at the starting point, the concern is wide, deep and far beyond that, until the end, coach Pep Guardiola’s team will be overthrown or not?
Man City this year did not invest heavily in the transfer market, when only Matteo Kovacic arrived with a contract of 25 million euros. This is a replacement for Ilkay Gundogan, but The Citizens squad also parted ways with Riyad Mahrez. Benjamin Mendy also broke up despite being acquitted in a lengthy lawsuit over allegations of rape.
In a funny way, Man City is “standing” to wait for rivals, but can Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham catch up?
Arsenal have invested more than £200 million in the transfer market this summer, Man United have also spent about £170 million, Liverpool are close to £100 million, Chelsea are selling more than buying, Tottenham are not many prominent names.
No one is sure whether Liverpool and Chelsea will recover in time after the sad 2022-2023 season, so most likely, it will still be just Arsenal and Man United challenging Man City.
But even so, what are the chances of success?
According to The Analyst – a site specializing in statistical analysis, their Opta supercomputer has simulated the Premier League 2023-2024 up to 10,000 times. As a result, there are 10 different teams that won next season’s championship at least once. Notably, this list also has the name… Brentford.
But in those 10,000 times, no team is expected to win as much as Man City – 90.2%. This rate is higher than any of Opta’s predictions for Europe’s top five leagues next season (closest is Bayern Munich’s 69.3% in the Bundesliga).
If that turns out to be true, Man City will become the first team to win the Premier League four seasons in a row. And does it mean that the Premier League is currently the least competitive of all the major European leagues?
Last season, Arsenal experienced their best run in 19 years since the 2003-2004 season unbeaten. Despite finishing with 5 points behind Man City, Mikel Arteta and his students pushed Man City to the end.
They also have more encouragement from the English Super Cup title after beating Man City on penalties. But let’s not forget that, only 1 team that has won the Community Shield in the last 12 times can win the Premier League.
According to Opta, Arsenal have only 4.1% chance of winning the title this season. But Man United is not the third-placed candidate but Liverpool – 3.55%. “Red Devils” only have 1.7% chance.
Newcastle has 0.22%, Chelsea has 0.13%, Brighton has 0.08%, Aston Villa has 0.04%, and Tottenham and Brentford both have 0.01%.
Even though it is merely numbers, it is apparent that when facts are considered, it is impossible not to pay attention.The only thing that can alter the game are alterations to the rule of adding additional time…
Of course, in the race to the Top 4, Man City is the least likely to fail, with only a 0.1% probability of finishing outside the Champions League.Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United are the most valued of the other three slots.
It is hardly surprising that Luton Town was relegated shortly after their first promotion to the Premier League.Sheffield United and Bournemouth are the next teams at peril.