Los Blancos might be about to take over football’s biggest rivalry for the foreseeable future
After Real Madrid’s penalty shootout win over Manchester City in the Champions League quarter-finals on Wednesday night, Jude Bellingham offered an honest assessment of the situation. “Moments like this are magic and it just comes down to mentality. When you get those details right and you get those little moments, like the penalties, when the lads keep their cool, it is magic. This was beautiful,” the English midfielder said, before running to the Madrid support in jubilation.
This wasn’t a signature Madrid performance. Los Blancos barely had the ball, and for long stretches were hanging on by a thread. There was genuine relief on the face of Carlo Ancelotti when the referee blew the final whistle to send the contest to penalties. But once there, the Madrid win felt inevitable. Luka Modric’s improbable miss notwithstanding, there was a predetermined nature to the whole thing. Madrid, as a rule, do not lose these games.
It’s a fact that Barcelona are all-too wary of. The two sides have met in El Clasico twice this season, the capital club winning both games. And on Sunday, the third has a real ominous quality for those in Catalunya. This is the last iteration of this Madrid they will face, with a number of marquee signings poised to make an already very good team even better. The Blaugrana, for all of their quality and pedigree, could be facing the start of a miserable run in Europe’s biggest derby.
Where Barca are
The Blaugrana situation is precarious. Xavi’s side won La Liga by some distance last year, and although they were unable to upgrade significantly over the summer, were expected to at least compete for the top prize again. The reality, of course, has been much different. Barca haven’t really found a groove this season, a glut of injuries, poor performances and defensive fragility making Xavi’s side a flawed thing. They are too easy to beat and lack the signature bite in the final third that carried them to a series of narrow wins last season.
It all came to a head in January, when Xavi announced he would leave at the end of the season. Since then, things have admittedly picked up. Still, a Champions League quarter-final loss ended any realistic chance of silverware this campaign. And with the Copa del Rey, Supercopa de Espana and La Liga all gone, a trophyless season seems upon them.
There aren’t any immediate signs of a turnaround, either. The Blaugrana are, once again, in deep financial trouble. La Liga president Javier Tebas has cracked down on their spending limit once again. They will likely be forced to sell players this summer if they want to reinvest.
Where Madrid are
Los Blancos, meanwhile, are ahead of schedule. There wasn’t supposed to be a rebuild in Madrid, but their struggles at the end of last season painted a picture of a side in between eras. Midfield stalwarts Toni Kroos and Modric seemed to be on their way out. Karim Benzema’s departure left them with a hole up front. Serious injuries to Eder Militao and Thibaut Courtois only compounded their worries.
The reality has been different. Ancelotti’s tactical nous, combined with the influence of Ballon d’Or frontrunner Jude Bellingham, has seen Madrid take off in La Liga. They are eight points clear atop the table, and showing very few signs of slowing down anytime soon. Champions League glory, with just Bayern Munich standing in their way, seems very much attainable. This could have been a year of transition. Instead, it could be remembered for a historic double in the Spanish capital.
New signings to come?
And it will likely only get better. Kylian Mbappe’s six-year flirtation with the Spanish giants has now turned into something more concrete. The France captain, of course, informed PSG last summer that he wouldn’t be signing a new deal to stay at the club. It led to something of a mad scramble in the footballing world. Mbappe eventually opted to stay for at least one more season, but the message was clear: he wants to play for Madrid.
Florentino Perez has made the transfer happen in some form. Mbappe will play for the Spanish giants next year. How, exactly, the deal works remains to be seen. Mbappe will likely leave on favourable terms for his Parisian hosts. However the final figures look, the move is all-but completed.
Palmeiras teenager Endrick will join him, the 17-year-old set to arrive at the Santiago Bernabeu upon completion of a €60 million (£52m/$64m) move – making him the most expensive player to ever come out of Brazil’s top flight. Where he fits into this Madrid side is unclear, but with two goals in four Brazil appearances and a string of star showings for his club side, he seems ready to perform at the highest level.
Further moves?
There might be others, too. Madrid tend to be linked with a flurry of names every year. It’s what big clubs do. This year’s trendy rumour is the potential arrival of Alphonso Davies. The left-back is floundering at Bayern Munich and, with just one year remaining on his contract, seems set to leave the club for a fee this summer or next year on a free transfer. Sporting director Max Eberl has admitted that the speedy defender could well leave.
“We think that we have made a very fair and correct offer. At some point in life you have to say yes or no, that’s the way it is… Some stone has to fall… It is completely legitimate that you have to make a decision at some point, regardless of whether it is Alphonso Davies or another player,” he said in late March.
Other rumours have floated about. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Reece James have both been connected with a transfer. Although it would make little sense now, Los Blancos will soon need a replacement for Dani Carvajal. An upgrade at right-back is possible.
The Barca response
This leaves Barca in a difficult spot. With little room to spend and a manager soon on the way out, there isn’t an avenue for the kind of emphatic turnaround that they perhaps need to get on level terms with their biggest rivals. Although Xavi might stay – should the club convince him – there doesn’t appear to be any surprise addition to change things.
The Blaugrana, then, will likely be forced to look inwards, to the halls of their famous La Masia academy, to keep pace with Los Blancos. And there’s room for optimism there. Lamine Yamal has impressed so far this campaign and looks like the closest thing to a Lionel Messi replacement the famous academy has produced. There is hope, too, to be found in Pau Cubarsi and Fermin Lopez, who have both carved out space in the first team. A host of other prospects: Hector Fort, Marc Guiu, Aleix Garrido and Angel Alarcon are expected to get their chance before too long.
Years of misery to come?
Still, that does little to detract from the fact that Barca are playing catch up. Madrid are firm favourites heading into Sunday’s clash and will extend their La Liga lead to double digits if they win. Barca will put up some sort of fight. Los Blancos are tired following their Champions League win, and may have to rest some legs ahead of a packed end to the campaign. But they still have the kind of talent to comfortably handle a Barca team struggling to find a rhythm.
This Clasico, although it won’t decide the league, then, feels like an ominous occasion. Although these two sides will evolve over the coming seasons, one appears to be strengthening, while the other might stagnate – or flat out decline. Years of misery might be underway.